Scientists Improve Solar Prediction

Scientists Improve Solar Prediction

Researchers report that one phenomenon can be the basis of all solar eruptions. They were able to detect the presence of a closed “cell” in which an entangled magnetic “thread” is formed, which is why an eruption event occurs. It's all about the resistance of the cell to the attack of the thread, which determines the power and type of the upcoming outbreak. This idea allowed scientists to create a model capable of predicting the maximum energy that could be released during the flare up period and harm the Earth.

Like our planet, storms and hurricanes attack the star atmosphere. These phenomena are created by a sudden and violent reconfiguration of the solar magnetic field and are accompanied by an intense energy release in the form of radiation of light and particles, and sometimes plasma bubbles. The study of such phenomena allows you to predict future events that may hit the satellites and communication systems.

In 2014, it became clear that the characteristic structure of magnetic field lines, tied together like a thread (rope), is gradually being shown today, preceding the solar flare. But until recently it was possible to capture only one thread in the event where the plasma bubbles were released. A new study examined the different types of flares, the models of which are still being carefully analyzed. To do this, a stronger magnetic field on the solar surface is measured, and then the data is used to restore the situation in the solar corona.

This method was applied to a large-scale outbreak that developed over several hours on October 24, 2014. It turned out that in the hours before the eruption, the evolving filament fell into the restriction of a multilayer magnetic cell. The launch of evolutionary models on a supercomputer showed that the thread did not have enough energy to break through the cell. But the high rotation led to a violation of stability and partial destruction of the cell, causing a powerful radiation.

The new method allows you to control the processes occurring a few hours before the outbreaks and predict the maximum amount of released energy. The analysis showed that in the event of a 2014 eruption, the plasma release would have been much greater if the cell was less stable.

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